THE MORNING BRIEF
04-30-26 $QQQ
Market Context
Markets remain in a macro-driven range, with rates and energy setting the tone. Crude strength continues to pressure inflation expectations, keeping yields elevated and reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” backdrop.
Positioning is split. Macro flows lean defensive into data, while equities led by large-cap tech continue to show relative strength, holding trend despite rate pressure.
Today’s focus is squarely on GDP and Core PCE. These prints will dictate whether rates extend higher (pressuring risk) or allow for a near-term relief bid.
Key dynamic:
Upside in yields = pressure on QQQ, risk of positioning unwind
Softer data = room for continuation higher via short covering
Net: Market is balanced but fragile. Direction likely driven by data → reaction in rates → flow through QQQ.
QQQ 0.00%↑ HTF (8HR CHART)
(1HR CHART)
KEY LEVELS INTRADAY:
CURRENT HIGHS $666-$667
VWAP $664
SUPPORT $662
MAJOR LIQUIDITY ZONES WILL BE THE CURRENT PRE MARKET HIGH TO THE UPSIDE AND VWAP TO THE DOWNSIDE.
TRADING PLAN:
BULLISH SCENARIO- PRICE CONSOLIDATES ABOVE $564 AND BEGINS TU CURLS TOWARDS HOD BY 10:30AM EST, THE TARGET WOULD BE A MOVE TO $670+.
BEARISH SCENARIO: PRICE SWIPES THE CURRENT HOD AND FAILES TO HOLD IT, IN THAT CASE ONCE IT FAILS THE RETEST THE SHORT TARGET WOULD BE $662 (SUPPORT), ALWAYS USING VWAP AS A GAUGE FOR BUYER SENTIMENT. LOSING VWAP COULD DRIVE PRICES TOWARDS $660 AND LOWER.
QQQ 0.00%↑ GAMMA LEVELS
EARNINGS PLAYS IM WATCHING:
YESTERDAY QCOM 0.00%↑ , GOOG 0.00%↑ AND AMZN 0.00%↑ REPORTED MASSIVE BEATS IN THEIR EARNINGS AND THEY ARE ALL UP MASSIVELY, I EXPECT SOME PROFIT TAKING AND REBALANCING ESPECIALLY IN $QCOM. I WILL BE WATCHING THESE FOR A DOWNSIDE MOVE AT THE OPEN, KEEP IN MIND IS LIKELY THEY SWIPE THE PREVIOUS HIGH FIRST.