THE MORNING BRIEF

05-01-2026

MARKET CONTEXT

Markets remain caught between strong equity momentum and a macro backdrop that refuses to ease. Growth is holding up, but inflation and energy continue to drive the tone. Q1 GDP printed around 2.0%, supported by investment strength, while PCE inflation accelerated, reinforcing the idea that policy will stay restrictive.

Positioning is increasingly stretched. Equities, particularly large-cap tech, continue to lead and push indexes toward highs, even as macro risks build beneath the surface. The divergence between resilient markets and a more fragile underlying economy is becoming harder to ignore.

Energy remains the key pressure point. Oil strength tied to geopolitical tensions is feeding through into inflation expectations, keeping yields elevated and limiting the Fed’s flexibility. This continues to reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative across global central banks.

Today’s focus stays on the reaction to GDP and PCE, with markets trying to reconcile solid growth with sticky inflation. The path for rates still hinges on whether inflation stabilizes or re-accelerates from here.

Key dynamic:

• Higher yields = pressure on duration and QQQ, risk of positioning unwind

• Sticky inflation = limits downside in rates, keeps macro tight

• Softer growth signals = potential relief bid through rates and short covering

Net: Market is strong on the surface but increasingly unstable underneath. Direction remains driven by rates, and rates are still driven by inflation and energy.

QQQ 0.00%↑ HTF

KEY INTRADAY LEVELS

PREVIOUS HIGH: $669.50 (RESISTANCE)

WEDNESDAY HIGH: $666 (SUPPORT)

QQQ 0.00%↑ GAMMA LEVELS

TRADE IDEAS

BULLISH SCENARIO: PRICE HOLDS OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS ($666) WILL BE LOOKING FOR CALLS TARGETING A MOVER TOWARDS THE CALL WALL AT $675, IDEALLY TAGS $670-$673.

BEARISH SCENARIO: FAILS TO HOLD $666 WILL BE LOOKING FOR PUTS TARGETING 15MIN FVG AT $664-$663.

TARGETS OF BOTH SCENARIOS