THE WEEK AHEAD

WHAT IS NEXT?

Happy Saturday friends, i think we can all agree that this week was quite remarkable in terms of price action. Many people missed this move, or worse, were positioned on the wrong side of the tape. In this article the goal is to take a look at what we have and have a good understanding of what can be next. I will start to spend more time here sharing set ups im watching for swing trades and even long term investments adds or trims on my portfolio^.

For reference right now on the chart you will see i have the 200D SMA as an the only indicator. on the bottom pane i have RSI, Williams and VIX, just so everyone knows what you are looking at.

Lets start with the indices:

QQQ

SPY

RIGHT NOW IS HARD TO BE A NEW BULL

Yes Yes i know, you are seeing this everywhere on the X timeline, but the reality is these charts are overextended. If you are a current participant in this move congrats, you have killed it. A few days ago i posted on my X i was buying META 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ and MSFT 0.00%↑ which all did incredibly well. I have trimmed some especially in their leveraged ETFs, so trust me, i participated in this rally (lol). However, i find it extremely difficult for me to be a buyer of new positions up here (besides intraday trading) with how hot these indices are. All indices are super over extended from any significant moving average, All relative strength oscillators are pretty hot, and the most important indicator, everyone on X is calling for an Up Only move for the foreseeable future.

WHAT AM I LOOKING AT INTO NEXT WEEK?

OIL - Charting oil right now is like charting the $VIX , pretty useless if you ask me. Everything is headline driven, maybe the Iranians are closing the Hormuz at the OIL support levels? LOL, this is why i keep an eye on it, but i dont make any decisions based on the chart itself. I stand at a similar point of view with the VIX, any headline will expand or contract volatility regardless of where the VIX is at, but do pay attention to the VIX level if you are trading options since the IV is a significant part of the premium you are paying.

LETS DIVE ON THE Q’S

Lets take a look at the volume histogram on the daily chart for QQQ 0.00%↑

The first level below showing significant support is $625 give or take. If price was to pullback to that level and confirm that support it would be an area of interest for me to build a long swing on some names including the Q’s, that is almost a 4% move to the downside which wouldn’t be unrealistic after a almost 20% nonstop rally. But buying any significant position high hoping for higher is crackhead behavior.

BITCOIN

Now when you look at $BTC Volume profile you can see sort of the opposite structure than in the Equities Indices, in Bitcoin you have massive overhead supply over $80K. In X recently i mentioned “When dip buyers become pop sellers”,that is the case here. Everyone that thought $80k was a good dip buy, is selling at the closest breakeven point. Bitcoin is probably one of the best risk on gauges to watch, especially over the weekend, and right now weekends are mostly used as exit.

GEOPOLITICS

Now this is the most important thing to watch for now. This is my current look on the Iran conflict. This current Navy Blockade is really hurting Iran, throughout the conflict Iran has been selling about 20 million barrels of oil a day, and this is their primary source of financing. How does it benefit the US? It doesn’t, is nothing more than a bargaining chip. My point, both the US and Iran need the strait open and the oil flowing, and that will be sooner than they are playing it out to be. The main problem in Iran is not the parliament speaker or the foreign minister, is the IRGC, historically the IRGC doesn’t respect or follow the Iran political structure, it 100% follows the Supreme Religious leader and their religious doctrine (Death to America and Israel), this is the pain point in these negotiations.

I believe Trump will be calling off this blockade to resume the opening of the Strait sooner than later, because again, thats all that blockade is for the US, a strong hand at the negotiation table.

REMARKS

I am not calling the top, but i am leaning on a downside correction to that $620’s level in the QQQ 0.00%↑ which ultimately would be the most healthy scenario for this charts. I wouldn’t expect the pullback to be a drastic 1 day deal, so don’t scream at me at 9:45am cuz we aren’t there yet! But technically speaking that would be where i put my money on!